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Newsletter - 6/15/2024



This is what I said two weeks ago in the newsletter:

"They are trying to use the Mag 7 to drag the rest of the market upward.  So far, it is not working since the overall market has moved opposite the Mag 7 the past couple of days.

No matter - we will know this week."

Well it took a "cool" CPI and Jerome NOT screwing up his post FOMC presser, but the Mag 7 led SOME of the market higher.  There is no doubt in my mind that "They" continue to crush the VIX in order to move the market higher.  How high is some of the market going to go?  I believe we will find out this week even though the market will be closed on Wednesday (I have never seen this before and my opinion is that it is stupid to force the market to be closed in the middle of the week).

I was paid for my patience with some fantastic trades this past week which pushed the overall return of my portfolios up from being up 19% YTD to up 40%.  Since May 2023 the total return also jumped from being up 149% to now up over 191%.  And this while only having on average 40% of my capital and an average holding time of 12 days.  This is not brain surgery - it's all about using TA, probabilities and statistics - and then letting them work for me.

The lack of strong follow-through by the indexes after making new highs is concerning.  The dwindling leadership of stocks making new highs is also concerning.  These are classic signs that the market is fatigued which very often results in a strong move downward.  However, even though I BELIEVE the market is close to making a top I still have to wait for price to confirm.

There is a "fragileness" to the market though.  Stocks and especially the Mag7 are no longer just going up as even $NVDA's recent daily moves have been much smaller than what it was doing pre-split. I have to admit there seems to be a lack of euphoria as a result of the new ATHs by the indexes and a growing demarcation between a shrinking number of tech stocks and the rest of the market.  I made the comment to myself this week that a number of sectors have already reversed lower and the $Russell 2000 continues to be very weak.  

Finally, I suspect the $Yen will be back in focus this week as once again, it is pushing the 158 level which is $2 below where the JCB intervened previously.  Don't forget that the JCB sold US Treasuries to raise capital to defend the Yen - they will probably do so again this week.  This would put upward pressure on US yields which is bad for the market.  It's something to watch.


Starting with the first newsletter in July, I will be moving to a paid model for the newsletter only.  It will be a nominal monthly charge of a couple of dollars and VIPs will of course continue to receive the newsletter for free.  Watch your email for updates and how to sign up.

Week in Review


Model Portfolio - since 5/9/2023

This Week:


Last Week:






Price finally broke to a new ATH high and appears to be consolidating for the next move.  Which way is it going to go?  I will have to wait for price to decide BUT market leadership is getting thinner and thinner.


The break level on the weekly is now new support.  Above that and I remain bullish, even with all the fleas this market currently has.



As with the SPY, the QQQ's broke to new ATHs this week - but it sure didn't feel like it.  I don't much pay attention to feelings as you know but there is a rising nervousness in the market that in the past has only been fixed by a drop.


Doom Trades 



"Am I worried that the stock prices of my DOOM trades are going up?


Why am I not worried?


Price on these DOOM trades can go up 10%, 20% or even 100% and it will not concern me because the underlying fundamentals are deteriorating so quickly."  


Price is SO CLOSE to the break level that I was going over scenarios where I could get short a bit early.  But, I cannot bc I must follow my own trade rules.  See what happened this week with how quickly price dropped?  It's going to be epic when the move is accompanied by volume.



Price confirmed a HCD on the weekly chart so I will look this week to enter a starting short in $BAC, as long as price does not violate last week's topside range.



Waiting.  Waiting.  Waiting.  Waiting.



From last week: "See that yellow line?  That's the line in the sand.  Below it on the weekly and I will look at getting short."  

Closed Positions

$TQQQ JUN 24Weeklies 65C for $5.30 - VIP Only


Notice that price NEVER closed below the stop. 

$ENVX JUL 12C for $1.07 - FREE Trade


We caught the recent move higher perfectly.  Once again, price never confirmed 

as a sell with each time it closed below the break level the very next day price stick saved.

$INMD JUN 19C for $1.00 - VIP Trade


I gave it plenty of time but price was never able to break out of the channel

that was formed after the break.

$HOOD July 23C $1.93 - VIP Only


I gave it plenty of time and could have exited with a +40% profit but I got greedy.

$NU Jul 13C $.26 - FREE Trade

While price didn't change from underlying much, theta decay caused most of the loss.

$AMSC Jul 21C $1.90 - FREE Trade


This was part of my thesis that tech and chips would execute a blow off top.

$CELH Jul 26 Weeklies 60P $2.67 - VIP Trade


A perfect break and retrace on the daily and once price broke, it went down to T1 in one day.

$KDP Jul 35C $.75


The initial break never followed through and by not respecting the stop I almost doubled my loss.


Current Open Positions

$FXI AUG 26P for .75 - VIP Only


Took the break into the gap.

$BYON JUL26th 12P for $.80


Entered on the break of major long term support.



Don't Hijack Yourself

I have the opportunity to speak with many traders each week, all with varying degrees of experience.  It's interesting to me that no matter how experienced or how successful a trader has been, they still make mistakes - like the $KDP trade above where I held to long.  

But there is a significant difference between an experienced trader making a mistake and more novice traders doing the same exact thing.  Veteran traders identify the mistake they have made, correct it and then continue trading whereas novice traders often stop trading "for awhile" and in doing so sabotage the process that would help make them more successful.  One of the most common mistakes I see traders making is learning a methodology and then only taking the trades that "feel right" to them and then wondering why the methodology is "not working." 

Look, if a trade methodology produces three candidates per week and you only take one or two, but not all of them, then you are completely diminishing the rule of large numbers normalizing returns.  Worse, you are not allowing probabilities to run their course.  

I learned very early in my life that if you want to be successful, do what successful people do.  To be blunt: you cannot decide WHILE YOU ARE LEARNING which parts of a successful person's actions/methods/tools you will use and which you will not.  You lack the experience and the hours to be "tweaking" methodologies and in doing so, you are all but guaranteeing failure.  Furthermore, you have not had enough time to build up Emotional Tolerance and therefore, you will be quicker to resort to bad habits or quit entirely.

Part of the process is breaking the habit of losing.  Harsh words but true.  If you are continually losing on trades, with a win here or there that gives you false hope - YOU ARE DOING IT WRONG and you should stop trading.  Seriously.  

I cannot tell you how many times I have seen someone be excited to learn and then within weeks, they are looking at another "system" or making changes.  This is the definition of insanity. Moreover, if I have not made my case for why using math, TA and probabilities is superior to 99% of the garbage techniques out there then there is little left I can do to prove to you the following:

Your (old) way of investing/trading is wrong.

My way of trading is right.

Note that I did not say that my way is the ONLY way - it is just much better than your way.  I know I am being blunt but I believe we are very close to the start to what could be a history making down move and if you do not prepare and CHANGE, your account will be destroyed.

Let me put this the simplest way possible: if you realize that how you have been doing it has not worked, then it's time to get serious about shit-canning those habits.  

Either jump in the deep end with both feet or get out because you cannot be halfway about adopting new methodologies and habits.

For my VIPs (not anyone specifically): if you want to be like a pro then do the things a professional does - which is not moving from on strategy or asset to another or by tweaking what I have taught you.  You do not have the knowledge or the experience to do so, yet.

One final note: along with learning early in my life to mirror what successful people do I learned another important lesson: do not let the opportunity before you pass.

A Personal Happy Father's Day

On a more personal note I wanted to share with you Dads reading what happened this week to me.  I have a good friend who was 53.  Not the perfect picture of health but not at risk for any serious health event.  Anyway, I speak regularly to this friend so when I hadn't heard from him in a week, I texted him to make sure everything was ok.

Imagine my surprise, and sadness, when this past Tuesday I got a text from his ex-wife, whom I have never met, telling me that he had passed in his sleep.  He was here and then he was not.

I am sharing this with you for two reasons:

First, we Dads do not live in a culture where what we do and who we are celebrated.  TV, media, movies portray Dads as being lazy, dumb, self-centered and just generally worthless.  Well I can assure you that when I texted with my friend's college aged son all he cared about was that his Dad was gone.  I know what that feels like as I lost my Dad a couple of years ago so Father's Day for me is difficult. 

My point is that as a Dad, you might not get the thanks you deserve, no one might ask how you are doing or it might even seem like no one cares.  But I can assure you that when you are gone, there will be a huge gaping hole in the lives and hearts of your kids.

Second, my friend's untimely death reinforced to me that TIME is the most valuable asset we have been given.  And what you do with that time is more important than almost everything else because no matter how rich, how clever or how connected you are, you cannot get more time.  

So, in relation to trading - spend your time wisely learning, practicing and growing your assets not chasing bad habits and bad methodologies.  This might be your last chance.

And in relation to Father's Day - you do not have an infinite number of them so make the most of each of them.  And feel honored to be a Dad, even if it's only for that day before you fade into the background again.

Happy Father's Day to my readers that are Dads.  I value you.


The Podcast library is here.


The Video library is here.

Paid Memberships:

Look, there are a LOT of scammers out there on FinTwit.  99.99% of them care only about selling packages of crap.  SOME OF THEM ARE CHARGING AS MUCH AS $5,000 PER MONTH!  None of them include what helped make me a better trader: having a mentor.  Having someone who will be your PERSONAL TEACHER, COACH AND ACCOUNTABILITY PARTNER.  A Mentor that has over 90,000 hours of screen time.  That by itself is invaluable.

People ask why I charge.  First, I want only VIPs that are committed and "having skin in the game" guarantees this.  Second, because my time is valuable.

See what others are saying:

jeff testimony.JPG



Don't forget the Discord live chat is STILL FREE but it will be closing to new members soon.  In fact, we have already started removing non-active members. 

  • In the meantime, come and join us - its the best community out there: Discord.

  • Also, be sure to check out the new page for Daytrading on the website, run by the fine gents @BaconTurkeyClub and @Juggernaut.  If you ever wanted to learn or just watch two pros daytrade live, they are at it every day here: DiscordFuturesChannel.

  • Finally, be sure to check out VampireTrades and his amazing penny stock trades.

Thankyou Family!


Nothing above is investment advice nor should it be construed as investment advice.  It is offerred for entertainment purposes only.  Always consult your advisors before investing any money.  Do not "follow" or "mirror" any trade ideas provided.  Mr.NotAdvice is not a licensed or registered investment advisor.  Do your own research.

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