Newsletter - 6/16/2023
Happy Father's DAy to all you Dads. I lost my Father two years ago and its still tough. I hope the Dad's can hug their kids and we kids can hug our Dads. Not much is more important.
PREVIOUS WEEK MARKET:
Both the SPY and the QQQ hit targets I posted weeks ago. The market is in full bullish mode right now and that's good for out long positions. I keep getting asked when can we get short. Not until we get a confirmed reversal on that daily. This is a great example of when you "feel" or "just know" that the market is going to go down so you take a position to profit, before there is confirmation. Sort of like knowing snow is coming so you start wearing boots and gloves a couple of days before. Remember, while discussing how messed up the market is enjoyable, it is also not a tradeable signal to use. Timing is everything and we time the market, and we do it well. We continue to trade what we see not what we think. And thats why the Model 5k portfolio is up +83% Let's look at some charts.
SPY is right at the 431.68 resistance level from last August. Until / unless we get a confirmed reversal on the daily, the market is BULLISH.
ECONOMIC COMMENTARY:
Ok, two things came out this week. First, PPI was released and as usual, they had fun with numbers. Here's my Tweet I shared:
While PPI came in negative, if you looked a little deeper it was easy to see that by taking out food and energy, it would have come in at a positive. (click to see more)
Does it make sense now why "someone" is artifically suppressing the price of oil? If oil were allowed to trade freely, it certainly would be higher and so would inflation numbers such as the PPI.
The second big event this past week was the FOMC statement. While the market was surprised at the shift in the language, we were not since I have been saying for at least six weeks that the Fed is going to hike and that inflation is actually higher than what is being reported.
The Fed "paused" but notably, stated that “Looking ahead, nearly all committee participants view it as likely that some further rate increases will be appropriate this year to bring inflation down to 2% over time,”
This is big deal. Fedspeak has gone from inflation is coming down (start of 2023) to inflation is sticky (April 2023) to they are going to have to raise rates. The Fed has no idea what it's doing because it is trying to serve two masters: it's mandate of 2% inflation and JPM, Biden at al.
It truly is stuck. If it raises rates to fight inflation, the US goes into a recession and dominos start to fall. If it doesn't raise rates than inflation will rise even faster and worse. Idiots.
Then the Market did exactly what was expected (not really): it went UP?! Why?? Because traders only heard Powell say they "might" raise rates not that they will. BS. As I discussed in this Blog Post this past week, the Market really went up because of continued liquidity pumping into the markets. NOT the big drop that all the "experts" were calling for post debt deal. Everyone but us.
CLOSED TRADES THIS WEEK:
We closed some nice trades this week:
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ORCL for +442% - held for 3 days
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LEN for +144% - held for 8 days. This was an interesting trade because we sold before earnings because it had gone up so much. Good thing we did because post earnings it was a breakeven trade at best.
We also had some losers this week:
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QQQ puts (-34%) - held for 4 days. This was an insurance play and frankly, it was a cheap way to be protected just in case.
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AN puts (-33%) - held for 2 days.
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MSFT puts (-44%) - held for 3 days.
The losing trades are a great reminder that shorting into an upward market is a challenge. We DO have some shorts that are doing well. AN and MSFT were both confirmed reversals so we did our jobs: we followed the plan and respected our stops.
TRADE IDEAS:
We entered some great new trades this week, with a couple already up!
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NKE Core Idea - already up to 2.73 from a 2.13 entry
If you are not a Member and want to see these, become one here.
BLOG POSTS:
In addition to the Blog Post referenced above, I also posted an article about VampireTrades pennystocks and how they could fit into a portfolio. Of course the first one he mentions right after the post went up over 100% in 20 minutes.
UPCOMING WEEK:
Pretty quiet week with the markets closed on Monday. We have some Fed member speeches, etc.:
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Tuesday: Housing Starts
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Tuesday: NY Fed Pres speaks
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Wednesday: Fed Chair testifies to House panel
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Thursday: Initial jobless claims
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Thursday: Existing home sales
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Thursday: Fed Chair speaks to Senate panel
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Thursday: Leading economic indicators
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Friday: Services PMI
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Friday: Manufacturing PMI
WELCOME NEW PAID MEMBERS!
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LPeer
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Shasha
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Tonkatsu
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TimMaxwell
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FarBrush
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Trollian
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we are legion
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JustJake
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jj2520024
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-RegEx-
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2tix2paradise
WHAT I AM LOOKING AT:
So for the upcoming week we have some good earnings plays and we hopefully will get to see the market decide if it is going to "blow off top" mode or reverse.
Also, I hope to have some time to start the revamp of the website, announce the Membership contest, and continue teaching sessions.
I have been getting messages from some of you and I have to say, they absoltuely mean the world to me. I am so excited to hear how well you are doing as you continue to put what you are learning to work. Keep up the great work!!!
CLOSING COMMENTS:
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If there are any stocks or investments you want me to look at, send the to me at info@MrNotAdvice.com. I will answer them in next week's newsletter.
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Don't forget the Discord live chat is STILL FREE but it will be closing to new members soon. In the meantime, come and join us - its the best community out there: Discord.
Thanks and let's keep keeping on!
theBoss
Nothing above is investment advice nor should it be construed as investment advice. It is offerred for entertainment purposes only. Always consult your advisors before investing any money. Do not "follow" or "mirror" any trade ideas provided. Mr.NotAdvice is not a licensed or registered investment advisor. Do your own research.