top of page

Newsletter - 9/24/2023


What a difference a week makes!  Last week I was talking about being frustrated.  This week, frustration no more.  In fact, we are finally STARTING to see a market that is behaving normally: where it can actually go down.  But before we celebrate too much on this "return to normalcy" understand that just like the worst villians, the FED is not done yet.  They will not go down without a fight.

The Week in Review

Well of course, the big news this week was the esteemed Professor Powell.  While the FED held rates the market did not celebrate - for two reasons:

  1. Powell's press conference was very hawkish.

  2. Powell's answers were full of contradictions.

I will elaborate below but in case you are bored out of your mind, here's a link to the transcript of one of the most brazen attempts at bullshit I have seen.  


Let's take a look at why the market threw  a (short-term?) tantrum as I elaborate on both of these points.

Powell's press conference was very hawkish:

Jay really crapped the bed during his presser.  I was pretty surprised that he did so poorly as he usually is pretty good at obfuscating and soothing market participants.  I believe that this time he did so poorly because the FED is running out of options.  Remember I have been saying over and over that the FED is stuck:  If it raises rates, the markets falls and banks will falter, hugely.  If it lowers rates, then inflation will soar (more) and then the market will go bananas to the upside for awhile at least.

Here are some of the things that stood out to me as being hawkish; page references are to the transcript above:

  • Page 3: "the median projection is unrevised for the end of this year but has moved up by 1/2 percentage point at the end of the next two years"

  • Page 5"the majority of participants believe that it is more likely than not that it will be appropriate for us to raise rates one more time in the two remaining meetings this year"

  • Page 6-7: "12 wrote down another single hike in one of the next two meetings that we have between the end of the year"

  • Page 7: "we've learned all through the course of the last year that actually we needed to go further than we had thought"

  • Page 8: "I think broadly stronger economic activity means we have to do more with rates"

  • Page 14: "is the heat that we see in GDP, is it really a threat to our ability to get back to 2 percent inflation"

  • Page 21: "You know, rates have moved up significantly"

  • Page 25: "by many forecasts, many, many, many forecasts call for growth to moderate over the course of the next year"

The market was planning for CUTS and via the FOMC statement and Powell's answers, the FED is looking to hike AND has pushed out by a year when cuts could begin.  While Uncle Jay was pretty sanguine about it these two changes are a big deal.  You probably heard it already but this meeting can be summed up in a simple statement: "Higher for longer."  That is most definitely NOT what the FED was saying at its last meeting.

Powell's contradictions and ridiculousness:

Powell made a lot of contradictory statements and statements that were just pure bullshit.  I offer the following list, with my comments, as examples.

  • Page 6: "So I wouldn't want to bestow upon it the idea that it's really a plan" - Well that's just great.  So you geniuses don't have a plan?

  • Page 7: "So we don't really know" - Super.  Just super.

  • Page 8: "rather than pointing to a sense of inflation having become more persistent, we've seen inflation be more persistent" - wtf? 

  • Page 10: "I've always thought that the soft landing was a plausible outcome, that there was a path, really, to a soft landing" - wait, I thought that a "soft landing" was the goal??

  • Page 11: "You're seeing, you know, inflation coming down." - oh realllly.  And where do you see inflation coming down?  Food? Gas? 

  • Page 13: "No one will look back at this and say, hey, we made a plan. It's not like that at all." - agreed, I certainly am not going to say any of them have a plan.

  • Page 15: "you're coming into this with an economy that appears to have significant momentum." - wtf.  Where is the Fed seeing the economy having significant momentum??

  • Page 16: "a soft landing is a primary objective, and I did not say otherwise." - uhmm, yes you did, 

  • Page 18: "Headline inflation, of course, has come way down, largely due to lower energy prices, some of which is now reversing" - uhhmmmm, energy prices are not down.

  • Page 19-20: "That's why we look at 12 months" and "we're also looking at six months and even three months, but really six months inflation" - so which is it? 3 months? 6 months? 12 months? 32 1/2 months?

  • Page 20: "And energy prices mostly don't contain much of a signal about how tight the economy is, and hence don't tell you much about where inflation is really going." - are you a freaking moron?

  • Page 21: "You know, rates have moved up significantly" and "But essentially, they're moving up. It's not because of inflation" - you have got to be f'ing kidding me.

  • Page 25: "If you're a person who spends all of your income, you don't really have any meaningful savings" - probably the single smartest thing he said - and no shit Sherlock.

  • Page 26: "I think overall households are in good shape." - maybe yours, and everyone else who lives in the swamp but didn't you just say that it was hurting low to moderate Americans?

Wall Street is pissed because Jay was all over the place.  Usually his lies are much more subtle but this time, he managed to contradict himself a number of times within the span of 20 minutes.  I, personally, loved to see him finally paying the price for once.

I have to note how many times he made it clear that this was a "group" decision.  Now why would he be so concerned with making sure the market knew this wasn't just him and that it really was everyone else???

Finally, right on cue, the FED quietly announced a NEW program to buy back bonds, a day after he pooped his pants.  This is Quantitative Easing.  But I thought they were doing Quantitative Tightening???  This was a message for Wall Street: don't worry, we are warming the printers up -so your stocks will go up more.

SPY Commentary


The Spy is in a confirmed downtrend on the daily.  See that puke green box?  That was drawn a month ago.  And here we are.  TA works.

We now have a gap above, which will be filled.  Looking at option positioning for next week it appears as though a bounce is in the cards so I will be monitoring my short positions.  

However, I absolutely believe that this is just the start of the downturn.

There's a lot of chatter about the RSI being oversold.  True, but that's a lagging indicator AND the market can and does become even more oversold.  It's easy to see on the MACDhisto that this was strong selling, across the board.  

417 on the SPY is the next magnet down with the gap above as the magnet above.  IF the market goes up to the gap and fails to close it, that means the Bears are defending and would be very bearish.  If the gap fills, we might still get that blow off top.  We won't know until we get there and see the results of the test.


So in case you haven't noticed, I have been much quicker adding trades and closing them.  This includes how I communicate them to VIPs and Traders.  

This is the new manner in which I will be doing this.  The old way took too long and frankly, the "why" should be pretty clear when you look at each trade.  However, if you do have any questions, ask me in live chat or message me.  I am more than willing to do live sessions also.

Here are the new trades I opened this week and why:

PLNT short:

This was a classic Wall Street trade: buy the rumor (in this case, short the rumor) and sell the news (when it comes). 

The rumor is that the BoD of Planet Fitness has been suppressing materially bad news about the number of stores they are going


to open, among other things, such as pedophilia and when they knew about it.

When you have the former CEO, who was just fired, tweeting about how bad the BoD is, I take notice.

It's pretty easy to see on the weekly chart why price paused and where it goes if it fails.

SOFI short:

Support level broken.  Now I wait for the retrace test back up.  Nothing really more to say.


ARM short:

With the theme of recent IPO's being sold off (already profited off of CAVA for a two-day gain of almost 50%) and the fact that ARM is a bit late to the party AND the big fact that it's owned by Softbank, which is notorious for screwing investors, I opened a short.  It might be bottoming here so I am staying alert.  "Only" up 30% so far.


CART short:

Same as ARM, a shitty company that just IPO'd.  I will say that the underwriters are doing a fantastic job keeping this at the IPO price.  For now.


ENVX update:

If you have been following me on Twitter or have been in the Discord chat, you know that I closed out my calls, bought puts, and raised some concerns.  However, I am still bullish on ENVX long term but for now, price is going down.

This is a great example of taking a loss, no matter how painful, and it was, and adjusting to TA and/or new information.

ENVX had a really good week of news.  And yet they didn't.  I am not the only one in the investment community who noted some pretty important "changes" by management.  Among them:

  • Changing strategy to large batteries from small

  • Paying too much (imo) for the company they bought this week, which "fixes" supply chain concerns (didn't know there were any) and will primarily benefit smaller battery customers (I thought the target was larger battery customers?)

I have tweeted at length about my other thoughts but I remain a bull, for now.  But I am thrilled I have puts.  Because despite the good news this week, price has moved down, strongly.  Be agile and unemotional - losses are inevitable but so are gains.

11.54 is a MUST hold level.  Just as 12.75 was.  If 11.54 fails, $10 and lower comes into play.  I have little reason to believe that $10 will not be tested, barring the release of a new large customer name or large contract.



I am starting a new weekly section where I will give you an example from the previous week of how you are screwed by Wall Street, the SEC, FINRA.  There are so many to choose from so I will choose the ones that particularly piss me off.

This week we have Citadel Securities.  They were fined by the SEC for breaking short-sale rules.  Efectively they labeled short sales as longs and vice-versa.  How many trades you ask?  MILLIONS.

Of course, this made the AMC apes go, well apeshit, bc they have been crowing about this for years.  But AMC wasn't the only stock.  They did this across the market.

Now, while no figure was given for how much they made, the fine amount was: $7 million.  7 f'ing million.

To put this in perspective, Citadel "earned" / stole $16 BILLION in profit in 2022.  Do the math.

So in this case, you and I were screwed by:


  • SEC

  • Citadel

Get angry.



I am expecting a bounce in the markets and it would be healthy for the Bear case.  But don't be fooled: this is just getting started.  We are seeing lots of news about CRE deals failing, layoffs rising, we have the expanding UAW strike and oh, GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN.  The list is just too long of all the things that are going wrong right now.  I won't get into political commentary this week except for this: the number of border "crossings" in Texas are now more than the total population of 15 US states.  And btw, they aren't all Mexican.


I will be watching closely to time my entry for a longer term short as well as ENVX longs.  

Be sure you are following me on TWTR because I am posting more and more there also.

The merch store will open soon and VIPs and Traders will both be getting nice PERMANENT discounts.


Here are just some samples of what we will be available for purchase:




If you have any requests for tshirts or other, let me know and I will add it.

Don't forget the Discord live chat is STILL FREE but it will be closing to new members soon.  In the meantime, come and join us - its the best community out there: Discord.

Thankyou Family!




No new blog posts this week.

The Blog post library is here.


If you are interested in taking a huge step forward toward profitable trading, then sign up for a paid membership HERE!

Nothing above is investment advice nor should it be construed as investment advice.  It is offerred for entertainment purposes only.  Always consult your advisors before investing any money.  Do not "follow" or "mirror" any trade ideas provided.  Mr.NotAdvice is not a licensed or registered investment advisor.  Do your own research.

bottom of page