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Newsletter - 7/30/2023

Blow off top incoming!

The Fed's wishy washy statement this week gave the bulls a few more weeks to make it happen.  And they will because the market likes to take the path of least resistance.  Right now, that's up,.  So, longs should do well and shorts, well it will be more difficult.

We had a busy week with ENVX and earnings plays and adding new positions.  And Oil is starting to move so maybe the Biden admin has taken a pause?  Oil majors are coming out and saying they dispute the demand numbers the Fed put out - who are you going to trust?



Markets printed a LCD on Tuesday and then retested the bottom of the channel on Wednesday and Thursday before breaking higher today.  Thursdays down was manufactured by the fake press release about the Bank of Japan going hawkish on rates.  They didn't and that's why the market is rallying. 

BUT - don't be fooled.  The Macroeconomic picture is getting worse.  Inflation is not going down it is flat to up.  Fuel prices are going to move it higher so watch for the Biden admin to try and cram oil down again.  But the problem is that if they do this, the cannot affect demand which is up.  It might take time for oil to break free of the manipulation but I suspect it will happen by late October.  Why?  Because that's what the majority of the oil companies are saying - demand is up, longer term demand is up.  The administration can lie about the numbers in their rosy economic projections but they cannot control actual purchases.

The markets are now set for blow off top.  We broke, retested and short term trend is now bullish.  I have positioned for such an event and think we will have a good August.

SPY is in the middle of a retrace on the daily.  That 461.81 high is in play still.  I think we take that out in weeks.


Short Term: Bullish

Mid Term: Bullish

Long Term: Bullish



We closed the following trades this week:

  • NIO calls: +29% (11 days) - half

  • NIO calls: +45% (12 days) - 2nd half

  • LYV calls: +78% (7 days)

  • LYV calls: +112.5% (5 days)

  • LYV calls: -17% (10 days) - 1 contract

  • PFE puts: -69% (17 days)

  • MRVL calls: -19% (10 days)

  • KO calls: -62% (5 days)

  • ANF puts: -56% (18 days)

  • TWLO puts: -18% (2 days)


Since May 9, here are the numbers:

  • Total Return: +84%


If you are not a Member and want to see these, become one here.



Finally breaking out but we still need to close that gap to 4.03.

Raised the stop to 3.74 also.


New Trade Data:

I spent some time drilling down into the Closed Trade page and found some very interesting data.  I am also analyzing past trades to see if I am missing something or if I can improve my performance.  I added the following data at the bottom of the table:

  1. I decided to "weight" the average returns of the Winners and Not Winners.  I believe this gives a better representation of how each of the three types of trades affect the overall performance of the model portfolio.

  2. I am still presenting the average unweighted returns for Winners and Not Winners.

  3. I added a completely new table breaking out the data for each type of trade.  I then added the average unweighted returns as well as the count of each and the average days held.

The Data:

  • Core Trades had an average return of 88.63% and loss of -48.77%.

  • Core Trades had more Not Wins than Winners: 16/14

  • Core Trades Winners were held 9.71 days and Not Winners were held 13.50 days

  • Lottery Trades had an average return of 71.47% and loss of -49.76%

  • Lottery Trades had more Wins than Not Wins by a large margin: 8/3

  • Lottery Trade Winners were held 11 days and Not Winners were held 3

  • Earnings Plays had an average return of 222.26% and loss of -66.20%

  • Earnings Plays had more Wins than Not Wins: 9/7

  • Earnings Plays were held 4 days and Not Winners were held 7

This is what I see:

  1. By a big margin, the most profitable trades are Earnings Plays.  In fact, they are more than double the returns for the other trades,

  2. Earnings Plays also had on average the least amount of time risk.

  3. Core Trades need to be sold the day that they violate a stop at the close - they do not come back so to speak.  Holding longer only increases the time risk and the loss.

  4. Holding longer than 11 days does not increase the probability of a positive outcome.


  • Instead of waiting for a "Stick Save" positions will be closed at the end of the day that they violate a stop.  TWLO is an excellent example of what happens when holding.  It violated the stop on Wednesday, stick saved Thursday and Friday the loss grew larger than the Wednesday stop.

  • Earnings Plays will be increased to Core Trade size immediately.  For the Model Portfolio, that means 8%.

  • Core Trades will remain at 8% for now.

  • Lottery Trades will remain at 2 - 4% for now.

This exercise is so important to do regularly.  By doing this, I am seeing how each class of trade is performing under CURRENT market conditions.  I do not continue to do something because it is working - I am always looking to improve to meet the first rule: PRESERVE CAPITAL.

Finally, for those of you who are thinking: "Why don't you just take Earnings Plays" I won't do it because I think that the Core Trade performance will substantially improve by tightening up the stop as I discussed above. 


Instead of an Economic Calendar, I will be posting MY schedule in the Boardroom as well as position specific dates.

I will be in the Boardroom:

  • Monday: 7:30am to 12noon MST

  • Tuesday: 7:30am to 12noon MST

  • Wednesday: 7:30am to 2pm MST

  • Thursday: 7:30am to 2pm MST

  • Friday: 7:30am to 10am MST

Earnings this week:

  • 8/2: CG-bmo, INVZ-bmo, 

  • 8/3:  REI-amc

  • 8/4: NKLA-bmo, 

If you are interested in a paid membership, let me know and we can discuss which one is best for you!


The WINNER of the FREE Month's VIP Membership is @2tix!  Nice job!!!

Now go make some pancakes!


I did a blog post about ENVX this week - I STRONGLY encourage you to read it if you follow the company.  Check it out HERE!

The Blog post library is here.


I said last week I wanted to get long the QQQs.  Now I am.  I said last week I wanted to add to ENVX.  Now I have and at a better price.

This week we have some great earnings coming so of course I will be watching for those.  I also am excited to see what happens with my adjustments - tbh I think they will improve the performance of the portfolio because I have been stuck in this +80% to +120% range for a month.  

I do need to keep it all in perspective though - up +80% in three months is pretty good.  But I expect more from myself.



I want to do live sessions but I never know when its best for everyone.  Now that I am posting my schedule, please take time to let me know when a good time is and what topics you would like to cover.


  • If there are any stocks or investments you want me to look at, send the to me at  I will answer them in next week's newsletter.

  • Don't forget the Discord live chat is STILL FREE but it will be closing to new members soon.  In the meantime, come and join us - its the best community out there: Discord.

Thankyou Family!


Nothing above is investment advice nor should it be construed as investment advice.  It is offerred for entertainment purposes only.  Always consult your advisors before investing any money.  Do not "follow" or "mirror" any trade ideas provided.  Mr.NotAdvice is not a licensed or registered investment advisor.  Do your own research.

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